2009 – let it shine!
14 January 2009
Whatever anyone says about the prospects for 2009, I have no doubt that it will prove to be a good year for some people.
Those people might be fortunate enough to find themselves in the right place at the right time – ‘pound’ shops seem to be on the up and I don’t know who this ‘administrator’ is but he seems to be everywhere at the moment.
Other companies will win out by having the right products at the right time and this is more by design than good fortune. I took the example in my column last week of LCD televisions as being one of the leading lights of the electronics market in the coming year. This is not just fashion as people have had the opportunity of investing in sleek and sexy TVs for years, what is different now is that picture quality on the new models can compete with that of the old CRT equipment. It required industry to provide this quality for the product to really take off. Digital cameras were another example, several years before, of the same thing happening.
There may be other examples during 2009 when other products reach this quality threshold that transforms them into one of the big sellers - hybrid or hydrogen-fuelled cars might join this list soon perhaps.
Other success stories might emerge from either necessity or government policy. In the last few days we have seen gas supplies to Europe from Russia be cut off and at the same time Barack Obama has spoken of his commitment to renewable energy and particularly solar energy. This combination of energy security, political will and environmental strategy is quite a compelling reason to enter the market, and that is what one major player, Toshiba, has announced it is going to do.
The photovoltaic market was reported to be worth $13.3bn in 2008 and rising to $24.4bn by 2015. Toshiba Corporation has launched its Photovoltaic Systems Division in a bid to capture nearly 10% of the market ($2.2bn) by 2015. Toshiba announced: “Solar photovoltaic systems are moving beyond residential applications to large, megawatt-scale projects for utility and industrial plants. Toshiba will secure orders for large solar power generation systems by drawing on its competitive advantages. In components, the company’s expertise includes high-efficiency power conditioning systems and the SciB – the Super Charge ion Battery – Toshiba's breakthrough rechargeable battery that offers excellent safety, long life and rapid charging. In system integration, Toshiba can point to world-class capabilities in system integration, particularly in connecting generation systems to distribution systems; in microgrids that connect and manage dispersed small-scale power generation sources, including renewable energy sources; and in large plant system engineering capabilities.”
It is all laudable stuff but I go back to my earlier comparison with the LCD TV market in as much as the figures projected may show a fair-sized industry with good growth, but they are not the sort of figures that you would expect from an industry that is going to solve the world’s energy and environmental problems. $24bn is no more than a government bail-out for a bank or two in today’s currency. Like LCD TVs the technology needs to take an extra step to cross that commercially viable threshold. Toshiba is clearly not going to approach the task by halves – so maybe it is the company to make that extra step. Maybe 2009 is the year when that step will be made.
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