Internal combustion engines keep on running
07 December 2010
I heard mixed reports of the automotive sector when I was in Munich last month for electronica, on balance the view of the region being a positive one.
But what region are we talking about? Certainly everyone who was talking about Europe, and particularly Germany, were doing so with broad grins on their faces. It seems the recession has become a distant memory, although not so distant that the dismal trading figures in 2009 are used to further boost year-on-year growth reports.
Virtually every company that I talked to about the automotive sector were buoyed by the speed and strength of the recovery on a global scale… and on a European level… but from a British perspective? That is where the slightly awkward shuffling of feet starts and the talk starts moving away from geographical markets and towards technology.
On delving deeper I was comforted by the general view that the UK automotive market was recovering, growing and the overall impression was that it was ‘doing okay’. Not surprising then that the main interest came from the continent where the sector is happily speeding along in the outside lane. It was still taken for granted, however, that the UK remained a centre of excellence for design, even if the manufactured volumes were struggling.
So what is the big trend in the sector? Is one main driver the move towards electric and hybrid vehicles? Partly, but not entirely, according to Erik Soule, Linear Technology’s VP of Signal Conditioning and High Frequency Products. “I read an article claiming that the electric vehicle market within five years would be 30% of total vehicle sales. This is complete fallacy – the internal combustion engine is going to be around for a very long time,” he told me. “But I think it is realistic that over this kind of timeframe it can get up to around the 5, 6 or 7% vehicle sales. And what this represents in terms of batteries is what can get up to $100s of billions. It is a huge opportunity and a lot of the problems technically have already been solved. It is mainly the manufacturing and growing up the infrastructure to support all of this that needs to be addressed.”
Despite this Erik went on to say that there were still major issue issues that had been holding back adoption of electric vehicles, one being the measurement and control of the lithium phosphate batteries. These batteries produce a wonderfully stable voltage output throughout their discharging cycle, which is great from an operational perspective but very difficult to determine how far through the discharging process they are. Very small differences in output voltage therefore need to be measured so that the battery stacks can be balanced and controlled to provide optimal operation.
Linear, needless to say, have come up with a pair of devices that can solve this problem and I intend to bring you more information specifically on this in a future issue. But, to quote Erik, the message is that: “We can now genuinely say that the cells are coming down the price curve, and the required reliability is now there. The electronics, the safety systems – the specs are almost ratified now – mean that this means of power is proliferating into all kinds of markets, and not just cars, there is a pretty important power trend emerging here.”
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